AR e-commerce trends 2026: the 2023 predictions checked

In 2023 we published a trends piece on AR in e-commerce. It expected personalisation, gamification and mobile apps to carry AR into everyday shopping. Three years on, we've gone back over each of those predictions to see what happened.

Gamified AR after the Meta Spark shutdown

Most brands built their gamified AR as filters on social platforms. Meta shut the Meta Spark platform down on 14 January 2025. From that date, third-party AR effects stopped being available on Instagram, Facebook and Messenger. Meta kept its own effects and said it was shifting resources towards new form factors like glasses.

A large part of what was called branded AR in 2023 ran on Spark. Branded AR games that ran on Instagram stopped working on that date; games built into a brand's own site weren't affected.

Personalisation and configuration

This prediction was partly right, with a different meaning from the one the 2023 articles had in mind. They expected AR scenes personalised by AI, where the site works out what the shopper wants. What grew was configuration, where the shopper picks a fabric, a module layout or a finish and sees the result in 3D straight away. Retailers built configuration because products with many variations are sold that way in a shop as well.

Sweef is one example from our own work. Its modular sofa has many combinations of modules, layouts and fabrics, and the range went into a configurator with web AR that takes the customer through them.

Mobile AR moved into the browser

This one was right, except that apps played a smaller part than expected. AR moved into the mobile web.

Both platforms now carry a system-level AR viewer that a web page can call: Apple's AR Quick Look on iPhone, iPad and Apple Vision Pro, with Apple Pay and material variants built in, and Google's Scene Viewer on Android. Google's model-viewer web component covers both and works on the last two major versions of every evergreen browser.

The shopper taps a button on the product page and accepts the camera prompt.

Changes since 2023 that nobody predicted

Headsets

Apple Vision Pro launched on 2 February 2024 at 3,499 dollars. Samsung's Galaxy XR, the first Android XR device, launched at 1,799 dollars with Chrome rebuilt for spatial use. Apple has added an HTML `model` element in Safari on visionOS 26, so a web page can place a model inline. Few people shop on either device so far. The GLB and USDZ files a shop already has will open on both.

A/B testing tools

Google Optimize and Optimize 360 stopped being available on 30 September 2023. Merchants who relied on Optimize and didn't replace it have had no A/B testing tool since, so a 3D rollout on those shops has no control group. If you're planning a rollout, choose a testing tool before you order models.

File size limits

Shopify now documents GLB and USDZ up to 500 megabytes, automatic optimisation above 15 megabytes, and around 4 megabytes as the sensible target. In 2023 each platform had to be asked separately for its limits.

The conversion figure that is still quoted

The most quoted number is still the one Shopify published in September 2020, with conversion 94 percent higher on product interactions involving 3D or AR content. We know of no public data that has replaced it. The figure is merchant data rather than a controlled test, and merchants tend to model their better products first, so expect less on a single page.

What to do in 2026

Put 3D on the product pages where size and variation decide the purchase. Keep the models as GLB and USDZ files that you own, and avoid formats that only work inside one platform. Set up a testing tool before you roll out. Leave headsets alone for now, since those same GLB and USDZ files already work on them.

Sources

• Meta, a Meta Spark update.
• Apple, AR Quick Look and Vision Pro availability.
• Google, Scene Viewer, model-viewer, Galaxy XR and Optimize sunset.
• Shopify, 3D e-commerce and 2020 merchant data.